Jacob Zuma’s ineligibility won’t cost MK party many votes – analyst

The ruling by South Africa’s Constitutional Court on Monday that former president Jacob Zuma is ineligible to stand for parliament in next week’s general election, won’t cost the MK party many votes.

That’s the opinion of political analyst Sandile Swana.

“What matters is that he is still able to campaign for the MK and be the face of it,” Swana said.

Decision outraged Jacob Zuma’s supporters

The decision will have outraged Zuma’s supporters and may stoke fears of violent unrest in the run up to the Wednesday, 29 May poll, already the most competitive since the advent of post-apartheid democracy in 1994.

The top court threw out Zuma’s complaint against an electoral commission decision that a previous conviction for contempt prevents him from becoming an MP, ruling that the constitution bars anyone sentenced to more than 12 months in jail.

Zuma, who left office in 2018 dogged by corruption allegations, was convicted of contempt in 2021 and sentenced to 15 months.

He eventually served less than three months in jail, but the court ruled that this was irrelevant as the constitution refers to the sentence imposed, not served.

“Mr Zuma… is accordingly not eligible to be a member of and not qualified to stand for election to the national assembly,” Justice Leona Theron said, reading the judgement.

‘Not allowed to enter parliament’

In a South African general election, the president is chosen by MPs from among their own ranks.

If Zuma is not allowed to enter parliament he cannot become president, even if his newly formed party is able to muster enough seats to propose him.

Following the judgement, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) said ballot papers would not now be reprinted nine days from the vote.

“The photograph of Mr Jacob Zuma will remain in the cluster of identifiers of uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) Party. The name of Mr Jacob Zuma will, however, be removed from the list of candidates nominated by MK Party,” it said.

Opinion polls suggest the MK party will not fare well outside of Zuma’s native province KwaZulu-Natal.

As reported by The South African website, Zuma drew a 30 000-strong crowd to Orlando stadium in Soweto on Saturday, but spoke only in Zulu to his core support base.

Zuma assumed control of the MK party to challenge his successor Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress (ANC), which has won every election since the country became a democracy, but is struggling in the polls and risks losing its absolute majority for the first time.

Do you believe the ruling will have any impact on the MK party’s votes?

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Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse (AFP)